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时间：2023年5月19日10: 00-11: 30
主 讲 人：冯骏 合肥工业大学经济学院特任副教授
主 持 人：傅仕光 博士后
主题：Level-K Reasoning and Biased Belief Updating in the Dutch Auction with Independent Private Values
讲座摘要
In this paper, we propose the models of quantal response equilibrium and level-k reasoning to describe the decision procedure of players in the Dutch auction with independent private values. The estimation results of the models from several different experimental datasets of the Dutch auction disclose learning effects with repeated trials in the Dutch auction, in spite of insignificant difference in bids at the aggregate level across periods. In particular, the bias in belief updating makes players overestimate the winning probability expected at future prices in initial periods but this inclination becomes weaker and even changes to underestimate the expected winning probability in latter periods. Furthermore, we propose a new task that is a simplified version analogous to the decision task of the Dutch auction. We first elicit individual features of the bias in belief updating with this new task, and then, by using the structural model of level-k reasoning, we examine the predictive power of these individual features for the bidding behavior observed in the Dutch auction. We find that it is predictive for the bids in the initial periods of the Dutch auction, but not for the last periods. This result provides a support for the long-standing conjecture in the literature that players are biased in belief updating during the Dutch auction and also confirms the learning effects suggested by the estimation results of the models.
嘉宾简介
冯骏 特任副教授
合肥工业大学经济学院
冯骏，合肥工业大学经济学院，特任副教授。于日本高知工科大学取得（社会）工学博士学位。并曾于新加坡国立大学商学院行为经济学研究所从事博士后研究。研究领域为：行为博弈论，行为机制设计，实验经济学，以及神经经济学。主要论著发表于Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Psychological Medicine, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, International Journal of the Commons.
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营销科学系
脑机协同信息行为重点实验室
科研与师资发展办公室
